Despite his early ruction with his classmates in Bologna Mr Fini has

Despite his early ruction with his classmates in Bologna, Mr Fini has never gone in much for the Saturday night brawls enjoyed by his comrades. He fought his battles first on the pages of the neo-fascist newspaper Secolo d'Italia, then in public meetings and parliament.Mr Fini says he wants to re-fashion the Italian right in the image of de Gaulle, combining a deep attachment to democratic values with strong leadership. As soon as his unashamedly neo- fascist mentor, Giorgio Almirante, died in 1989, he began dropping the old symbols of the past - black shirts, Roman salutes and the like - in favour of a more clean-cut, almost yuppyish image.The image suits the man, with his neat hair, studious metal-framed glasses and cautiously elegant dress sense. These days Mr Fini, still fresh-faced at 43, winces with irritation every time he is accused of fascist tendencies. Ferociously ambitious, he is determined to refute any suggestion of improper or anti-democratic ideology. The decision to wind up the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement and rename it the National Alliance was only the latest stepping-stone on a long road towards respectability for Mr Fini.

He and a school friend went to see The Green Berets in defiance of a boycott called by their left wing classmates, getting themselves into a fight outside the cinema for their pains The next day, a banner in class read "Fini is a Fascist" The young Gianfranco needed no further encouragement... Perhaps Italian democracy, not a grand old lady but not without her merits, is safe in their hands. In which case I will be the first to cheer, and promise to eat my hat.Paul Ginsborg is the author of `A History of Contemporary Italy' (Penguin).. Gianfranco Fini likes to tell how it was a John Wayne movie that thrust him, as a tender 17-year-old schoolboy from Bologna, into the arms of the neo-fascist right. A divided Italy that cannot reduce its public debt is not a good bet for Europe.Of course, this could all be alarmist left-wing hogwash.

Perhaps Gianfranco Fini really intends to leave the Bank of Italy alone. Perhaps Silvio Berlusconi intends to sell his television channels and introduce fair rules for mass communications in Italy. Perhaps they will both encourage the magistrates to go on rooting out corruption, clientelism and the Mafia. This means trouble, not only within Italy but without, for the public debt cannot be reduced without a clear social strategy.As was evident last November, a socially unjust division of the economic burden, which penalises dependent workers and privileges the self-employed, will meet with the stiffest opposition from the trade unions and rekindle Italy's considerable labour traditions.

Public and private television will become the sites of unashamed political propaganda. Above all, the country will be more deeply divided than at any time since the 1950s. For all their smooth exteriors, neither Fini nor Berlusconi are consensus builders. Independent elements within the Italian state, such as the reforming magistrates, will be muzzled, and the relative autonomy of the Bank of Italy will disappear. What then for Italy?The formal rules of democracy will remain untouched, but the constitution will be changed, parliament will be demoted, and an overstrong presidential figure will emerge. These two parties have a very good chance of winning the next national elections, probably scheduled for October of this year. Integration means regulation, which ill-corresponds with Fini's and Berlusconi's happy intertwining of private interests with thestate sector.Finally, a glimpse into the future.